THE PREDICTION OF POSITIVE COVID-19 CASES IN MALAYSIA USING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, PARABOLA AND CUBIC LEAST SQUARE METHOD

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 is the biggest problem that Malaysia needs to face. People who affected by coronavirus are the biggest challenge that we need to prevent and control. Therefore, it can be seen that people in Malaysia are mostly need to be more worry about COVID -19. However according to data provided. There has been a significant decreasing and also increasing in positive COVID-19 cases from January 2021 until October 2021. People cannot go to work or do their daily activities because of the pandemic COVID-19. This virus was spreading widely month by month also making people worry and carefully to prevent themselves from being affected. To overcome this problem, we need to predict the coming cases for us to be ready to live in this situation. In this article explains the best method to predict of COVID-19 in Malaysia by using the exponential smoothing method, parabola least square method and cubic least square method. The data of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia from January to October in a year 2021 is obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia and World Health Organization official website. The data from January to October in the year 2021 is calculated using all three methods, and the result is compared to the actual data. All methods' error is calculated using relative error. The method that produces the fewest errors is selected as the best.